The Great Recession of 2008, is rivaled only by the Great Depression of the 1930s. The Great Recession of 2008 hurt everyone. No one was spared. Compare 2008 with 2000 and the tech bubble burst. Those of us over weighted with technology stocks suffered dearly. A large handful of us were affected, but not everyone. The market went down but it came back relatively quickly when real estate started to ramp up. In 2001 9/11 hit and we all suffered for a short time and then all was “back to normal.”

2009 would be the year of widespread unemployment, deeply sagging real estate prices and a Dow that hit its low at 6,400, down from a peak of nearly 14,000. The surprise 4000 point gain in the Dow in the second half of 2009 squashed all the pessimist’s forecasts and even shocked the optimists. All the voices who cried that the government was taking on bad debt are now amazed that bans are paying back TARP (perhaps for the wrong reasons), but, nonetheless the taxpayers are gaining benefit. The VIX, or volatility index, is down under 20 vs. the crazy 80+ readings we had earlier. Housing prices are stabilizing or up in at least 20 major metro areas, and hiring of temporary employees is sharply higher.

Meanwhile though, there is a great divide between Wall Street and Main Street’s recovery. The unemployment rate is still at 10%+ to 17+% depending on which measurement is used. Stores and businesses have and are closing, incomes are down and we consumers are very cautious. Main Street starts 2010 demoralized and uncertain. The legal and financial professions have gone from robust to just plain bust. Those of us who are still employed (or have another income source) and are able to invest are recovering well. The depleted unemployed, the struggling business owners, and demoralized homeowners who can’t pay their mortgage start 2010 with uncertainty and consequent fear.

I don’t think we can declare victory over the economic disaster of the Great Recession, or even that it is at an end. But the latest reading of the “tealeaves” does suggest we are emerging from the worst of it.